New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1), 4:15
Eastern in Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
By Ben Kelly - InReeseWeTrust.com 11/12/11
What happened last week?
San Francisco improved to their best record since 1997 in
knocking off the Redskins in DC, 19-11. The 49ers are 4-0 in road games and return
to the Bay Area for a two game home stretch. Candlestick Park is the site of
Jim Harbaugh’s lone loss this season, where the Niners fell in overtime in week
two to Dallas. San Francisco reeled off six straight wins largely because of
its defense, good for second in the NFL in scoring defense and second in
defensive turnovers. San Francisco’s formula against Washington captured its
model throughout the six game win streak: Frank Gore rushing for 100+ yards,
efficient play from Alex Smith (one interception during win streak) and disruptive
defense (2+ turnovers in seven of eight games). San Francisco holds a five game
lead in the NFC West.
San Francisco’s weak spot is…
If you had to point a finger at the offense, most would look
to long-time starter Alex Smith, except he’s having his career year under the protection
of John Harbaugh. Smith’s rating is sixth in the NFL at 97.3- just one spot
behind Eli Manning. Smith’s running game is the real force behind his
production. Harbaugh’s emphasis on beating the opponent at the line of
scrimmage has infected the 49ers like it did at Stanford. The 49ers boast a
punishing offensive line behind young stalwarts Joe Staley, Anthony Davis and
Mike Iupati, who helped Frank Gore set a franchise record with his fifth
consecutive 100+ yard game last Sunday. The San Francisco rushing attack has
negated the need for a quarterback air show. Smith completed just eleven passes
in a week five 48-3 beatdown of Tampa Bay. If its running game stalls, San
Francisco has shown capable of scoring big on special teams and defense. In the
week one 33-17 victory over Seattle, Ted Ginn recorded both a punt and kick return
touchdown, in the same minute.
Which quarterback is better in the two-minute drill?
Both Alex Smith and Eli Manning are experiencing
revitalizing seasons on the field. Harbaugh’s strong public support of the
veteran during the offseason might have given the quarterback the confidence
needed to thrive. Smith’s 97.3 passer rating and 64.1 completion percentage are
significantly higher averages than any of his previous seasons. Most
importantly, Smith has led his team to three comeback victories in the second
half, including erasing a 20-point second-half deficit in Philadelphia. His
106.7 passer rating in the fourth quarter is among the best in the league. As
good as Smith has been, he can’t touch Eli Manning in the fourth quarter this
season. Manning’s own fourth quarter rating- 121.7- is the best in the NFL. Manning
directed fourth-quarter game winning drives in each of the Giants’ past four
wins and used all but the last 15 seconds in Foxboro last week. In games where
the rushing attack was stagnant, Manning has performed his best.
Why the Giants will win in San Francisco
Both teams enter this game carrying a lot of momentum as
division leaders. The Giants recorded New England’s first home loss in twenty
attempts, and San Francisco has a six-game win streak. Something has got to
give. The Giants’ preference for late-game heroics faces a stiffer challenge
this week against a 49er defense that’s allowed only three fourth quarter
touchdowns this season. New York’s weakened running game also figures to
sputter again against a rush defense allowing only 70.8 yards per game. San
Francisco’s roving linebackers Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman are both on
pace for more than 160 tackles this season, spearheading a 3-4 defense that’s yet
to allow a rushing touchdown through eight weeks. On the other end, the Giants’
rush defense isn’t too hot these days, surrendering an average of 147.3 in the
last six games.
How then will the Giants win, you ask? The Giants absolutely
must put up early points and force San Francisco to abandon the Frank Gore game
plan. Gore might not play at all after suffering an ankle injury last week.
Without Gore, the San Francisco offense relies on the shoulder of Alex Smith
and Gore’s backup, rookie Kendall Hunter. Eli has to sling the football around
early to force Smith to keep pace early with the Giants’ offense. A limited
Gore will sit on the bench as Smith tries to rally the 49ers. Facing a steady
barrage of pass rushers from New York’s league-leading sackers, expect to see
the Alex Smith of old throw a few indecisions into the secondary. Giants win,
28-25.
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