New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2) at
Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. 4:15 Eastern start
By Ben Kelly - InReeseWeTrust.com 11/5/11
What happened last week?
New England went on the road to Pittsburgh, losing 25-17 to
Pittsburgh’s ball control offense. The Steelers held the ball for nearly 39
minutes through unconventional game planning- Ben Roethlisberger tossed fifty
passes, completing thirty-six for 365 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s
leading rusher Rashard Mendenhall carried only thirteen times for seventy
yards. Roethlisberger picked apart the NFL’s worst defense on safe and
intermediate routes; his longest pass of the day went for 26 yards and the team
converted 10 of 16 third downs. Pittsburgh’s scoring drives all covered ten or
more plays, lasting 11, 16, 10, 14 and 11 plays. That pace forced New England
to abandon the run, attempting only eleven carries with its running backs. Tom
Brady was held to a season low 198 yards through the air on 24 for 35 passing and
was sacked three times.
Has the Patriots defense stopped anybody this year?
Well, besides New York state’s fourth best quarterback Mark
Sanchez (I’d argue Eli, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib are
better), the answer is no. Sanchez is the one exception to New England’s pass
defense, being held to 166 yards on the road in Foxboro. Tony Romo threw the next
lowest total against New England… at 317 yards. Jason Campbell threw for 344 in
Oakland. Chad Henne tossed 416 yards in the season opener for Miami. The NFL’s
worst pass defense has hidden the inefficiencies of New England’s run defense,
which ranks ninth in yardage but eighteenth in yards per attempt. Only one team
has rushed over 100 yards against New England, but only one team beside the New
York Jets totaled less than 400 total yards (Dallas with 377).
Back to the injury report
The Giants easily have the best injury report roster in the
NFL. Weekly fixtures Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Michael Boley and Mario
Manningham are listed as probable. Prince Amukamara’s career debut is still
questionable, as are the appearances of Henry Hynoski and Jason Pierre-Paul,
Big Blue’s best pass rusher who reportedly suffered a concussion in practice
this week. David Baas, Ahmad Bradshaw are both doubtful to play with knee and
broken foot injuries. The biggest loss could be Hakeem Nicks, who is doubtful
after hurting his hamstring last week against Miami. Not only is Nicks the
Giants’ best offensive playmaker, but he opens the field for Victor Cruz and
Manningham. If Bradshaw can’t go, Brandon Jacobs will carry the load with DJ
Ware working on third downs. Rookie Da’Rel Scott could be the breakout rusher
this week as his highest production this season came against New England in the
preseason. In that game he carried 12 times for 114 yards for a 9.5-yard
average, including a 65-yard touchdown scamper. Scott’s only regular season
carry went for four yards against Buffalo.
How the Giants will win
The home-team Patriots are favored by nine in a high stakes
game for both teams. New England needs to keep pace with division leading
Buffalo, who host the Jets this week, while the Giants face a vicious November:
after New England, the Giants fly cross country to 6-1 San Francisco, then host
the Eagles and travel to New Orleans, both of which are primetime 8 o’clock
matchups. A win against New England would start the month with much needed
momentum. The last time the Giants played minus Ahmad Bradshaw was a 26-6 loss
to Denver in 2009. New York ran for 57 yards on 16 carries for a 3.6 average.
The two lead runners that day? Brandon Jacobs and Danny Ware.
This game is really a matchup between the quarterbacks,
Manning and Brady. Both should pass for their standard output- the fourth
(Manning) and third (Brady) most highest per game totals in the league. The
mismatch between defenses is where the game will be won. New England is 32nd
in the NFL in yardage and 22nd in sacks. Tom Brady can offset the
league’s worst defense with his shoulder and a stable of running backs, but the
Giants have the defensive firepower to rush Brady out of his rhythm like the
Steelers. The NFL’s best sack-masters blasted the last two quarterbacks faced-
Matt Moore and Ryan Fitzpatrick- for eight combined sacks. A disruptive Giants
defense will be the difference. Giants win, 31-28.
