Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2), 1pm Eastern at
the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, New Jersey
By Ben Kelly - InReeseWeTrust.com 10/15/11
What happened last week?
Buffalo continued its early season magic last week by
defeating Philadelphia at home, 31-24. The Bills climbed to 4-1 despite
allowing over 450 yards in each of their last four games, including 489 to the
Eagles (who totaled 376 against the Giants). The key for the Bills overcoming
their 30th ranked defense is opportunistic play, having forced sixteen
turnovers on the season, the second highest total in the NFL. The Bills
intercepted two of the league’s best quarterbacks four times each: Tom Brady in
week three (30-45, 387 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Michael Vick last week (26-40,
315 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 carries for 90 yards). And for the third consecutive
week a Buffalo defender returned an interception for a touchdown. The Bills
have 12 interceptions on the season, one more than they totaled last year.
While Ryan Fitzpatrick has become the humble star of Buffalo’s offense, the
real story is the Bills frustrating opposing quarterbacks into critical
mistakes that make up for the league’s third worst defense in yards allowed.
The Bills will win if…
Their defense makes the big plays. Buffalo may be 4-1 and
tied for the second best record in the NFL, but their defense is still averaging
479 yards against in its last four contests. The turnover battle is keeping
Buffalo alive late in the game en route to two three-point wins and a
seven-point margin of victory last week. The Bills can overcome a sieve of a
defense with their league leading plus-11 turnover ratio. The Bills are also
one of only three teams left that hasn’t coughed up a fumble this season. The
other two teams- Detroit (5-0) and New England (4-1)- are grouped among the
best teams in the league through five weeks. Fitzpatrick has been key to that
fumble statistic, being sacked only three times this season, a league best
among starting quarterbacks. Bills quarterbacks were sacked 34 times last
season, and another year featuring a patch work offensive line provided a
similar outlook. Fitzpatrick’s decision making and quick release have
contributed to the improvement, but Buffalo’s line is doing its part in paving
the way for the NFL’s fourth best rushing attack while ranking ninth in
attempts. Fred Jackson is garnering MVP consideration for his all-purpose
production, running for 480 yards and hauling in 19 passes for 232 yards
through five games. The Bills have a balanced offense and playmakers on defense
to make up for not stopping the ball.
The Giants will win if…
Manning keeps the ball away from Bills’ defenders. Eli threw
three picks against Seattle, which ultimately cost the Giants a win, but his
last two were tipped and not necessarily the fault of the quarterback. Eli is
doing a much better job protecting the ball this season than last year,
throwing two picks in his first four games of 2011 as opposed to six last year
through four games. This season is Eli’s best yet as a passer, and he threw for
420 yards in last week’s loss. Eli is carrying the offense on his shoulders while
the run game stumbles to 31st ranked in yards per attempt and 28th
in yards. The run game won’t get a boost this week with Brandon Jacobs and
Chris Snee out and David Baas listed as questionable with a neck injury. This
game will once again be won or lost on Manning’s arm.
Something’s gotta give…
The Giants are number one in sacks with 18, including 6.5 by
Jason Pierre-Paul and 4 from Osi Umenyiora, who is probable. The Bills are
number one in sacks against, with four total (three on Fitzpatrick, one on the multipurpose
Brad Smith). The matchup that will determine the result is Jason Pierre-Paul
versus left tackle Chris Hairston. If you haven’t heard of Chris Hairston, it’s
because nobody has. Hairston is a rookie from Clemson taken in the fourth
round, who made his first career start against Philadelphia, owners of a
formidable pass-rush themselves. Hairston held his own against the Eagles, but
that game was played in front of a Buffalo crowd. His first road trip will not
be as friendly as Orchard Park, New York. Expect Pierre-Paul and Umenyiora to attack
the rookie all game long, and for the defensive ends to wreak havoc on Fitzpatrick,
forcing a few turnovers. A strip-sack will end the Bills’ no-fumble streak, and
the Giants will win the game via constant pressure on Fitzpatrick and a few big
defensive plays of their own. Giants record the upset, 27-23.
