Finally!!!
The NFL off-season always seems to go on forever, but it comes to an end on Sunday when we get down to some real football as the Giants open the season against Washington at the Meadowlands. And expectations are high in New York as the Giants go into the campaign as the presumptive favorite in the NFC. It ain’t gonna be easy though. The NFC is the toughest division in the entire league with all four teams capable of making the playoffs. Philadelphia, in particular, enters the season as literally the co-favorite in the NFC with the Giants, while both Dallas and Washington would be close to being divisional favorites if they played in the NFC North and West. Meanwhile, there are at least a half dozen other serious contenders in the NFC including New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina in the South, Minnesota, Chicago and possibly Green Bay in the North and Arizona in the West.
Why the Giants will win it all this year… The Giants enter the season with probably the NFL’s best rushing attack. They also have potentially the league’s most disruptive pass rush. And when the rush doesn’t get there, the Giants also have one of the league’s deepest groups of corners. The Giants, of course, are still looking for someone to step up as the #1 receiver in place of the imprisoned Plaxico Burress, but even if the they don’t have a prototype go-to wideout, the Giants appear to have a lot of useful receivers they can work in the mix.
Why the Giants won’t win it all… The Giants are built to win, first and foremost, with pressure defense, but the unit looked more like a M.A.S.H. unit at times this summer. Of course, injuries are a fact of like in the NFL where a season can be more like a war of attrition in which the team lucky enough to stay heathy often comes out ahead, but the Giants injury list up front is more than just little worrisome. For the record, DE Osi Umenyora is coming back of an ACL injury that ended his 2008 season before it began, fellow DE Justin Tuck, who wore down badly at the end of last season, was bothered by a nagging foot injury all camp, LB Michael Boley had surgery on a hip, DE Chris Canty wasn’t able to work out at all this summer because of a hamstring tear; DT Fred Robbins had microfracture surgery on a knee earlier in the year, DT Rocky Bernard also was sidelined much of camp, while DT Barry Cofield has had a recurring leg problems at times this summer. And that doesn’t count the loss of DT Jay Alford who will miss the year after tearing an ACL.
The problem for the Giants isn’t so much getting the players on the field. Football is tough enough business when players are fully healthy, but if too many of those guys aren’t 100% over the course of the year, as Tuck was at the end of the 2008 campaign when he gutted out the final quarter of the season, but had little real impact on the action, then the season could be a long struggle. Meanwhile, there is a huge drop-off in talent from the first unit offensive line to the second group, such that a couple of injuries up front on that side of the ball could also function to make things very difficult. That situation is especially critical at OT where both incumbent starters David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie have had their own health concerns this summer. Diehl has had a nagging sore knee, while McKenzie has what appears to be a chronically iffy back.
Key players on defense… See above. The Giants are blessed in having not one, but two NFL defensive player of the year candidates in DEs Umenyiora and Tuck. If healthy, they have the potential to combine for 25-30 sacks. And with the depth the Giants have rushing the passer, that would go a long way to getting the Giants into the 55-60 sack total for the year which is championship country.
Key player on offense… Sure he’s been the QB of one of the NFL’s franchise franchises, but throughout the early part of his career Eli Manning always seemed to be more a complimentary player. But Michael Strahan is gone now. So is Jeremy Shockey and Tiki Barber and Plaxico and Amani Toomer. Almost by default, its Eli’s team now. And the fact is that Eli is coming off, by far, the best season of his young career last year when he finally got over the 60% completion mark (60.3%) and, most importantly, threw just ten picks. In fact, Eli has gotten better each year he’s been in the league so there is no reason to think he’s hit a plateau yet. Indeed, he will have to be at his best this fall as he breaks in a brand new receiver corps that for now lacks a prototype go-to type security blanket.
Breakthrough player … One reason the Giants didn’t really sweat sending tempestuous TE Jeremy Shockey off to New Orleans last summer as that they felt they had a perfectly good replacement in Kevin Boss waiting in the wings. They are still waiting. No question that Boss is as athletic as they come at the position; as a former basketball player he has a long frame, can run and has great hands. And while he’s made his share of big plays, the consistent production hasn’t yet been there. Indeed, with the WR receiver corps in a state of flux, the Giants will need far more than 33 receptions from Boss this fall, although as noted the skills are there to double that number.
Making the cut … As usual there was a surprise or two when the Giants cut down to the regular season 53-man roster limit. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the fact that WR Sinorice Moss is still with the team. After a very pedestrian camp, Moss appeared to be very much on the bubble, but got a late reprieve after hauling in a couple of TD receptions early in the Giants’ pre-season finale against New England. Indeed, one word came to mind when Moss’ two scores flashed on the wire and that was ‘Showcase‘ as there have been rumors that several teams including Miami and Baltimore had some interest in trading for his services. At the same time, though, it is very possible that the Giants decided to hang onto Moss because other than Steve Smith, he’s the only natural slot WR on the roster. And should anything happen to Smith, who has never been that durable to date, the Giants would be forced to move either Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham, both of whom much prefer to operate outside, inside to the slot if Moss still weren’t around. In fact, in the end, the Giants kept 7 WRs as Derek Hagan also earned a roster spot. The bottom line often is what can you do for the team on game day and Hagan has the potential to be a useful #5 WR on game day as he can back-up at multiple WR roles and is also a very good special teamer.
Nobody should rule out the possibility, though, that the Giants do ultimately trade one of the extra bodies at WR at some point before the October 20th trade deadline, especially if rookie wideouts Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden continue to make strides. The Giants did make one trade at the cut-down deadline when they sent TE Michael Matthews to New England for a conditional pick in 2011. Figure it’s a 7th rounder if Matthews sticks on the Patriots roster through the year or possibly makes their opening day roster next year. Moving Matthews, the Giants #2 TE last year who got a lot of snaps as a blocking specialist, was a bit of a surprise as it leaves the Giants, a team that runs ou of a lot of two-TE formations, with just two players at the position who can block. Rookie Travis Beckum got the nod as the #3 TE. The Giants, though, may be willing to use back-up OTs Guy Whimper and/or William Beatty, both of whom converted from TE earlier in the careers, in a TE-type blocking role as the season progresses. Meanwhile, the one real beneficiary of the release of Matthews was rookie WR Hakeem Nicks who was able to put in a claim for Matthews #88 jersey his old number in college at North Carolina.
In fact, the Giants’ roster entering the season is a bit lop-sided in places. In addition to keeping 7 WRs, for example, the Giants retained 10 offensive lineman whereas they only carried 8 last season. The Giants also kept 8 Lbs (9 if Michael Boley who won’t play Sunday against the Redskins as he sits out a one-game league imposed suspension) which is a lot for a team that generally only uses two on as many as half their defensive snaps. The Giants will have to make at least one roster move when Boley is activated next week. The most logical move would be to simply release another LB - Gerris Wilkinson looks to be the most vulnerable - although one of the offensive linemen could also be vulnerable as all the LBs on the roster including Wilkinson are very good special teamers. For the record, Chase Blackburn will start Sunday against Washington in Boley’s WLB spot
On the other hand, the Giants only kept 8 defensive backs, including just three safeties on the current roster. In contrast, most teams carry 9 or 10 defensive backs including at least four safeties. And a somewhat thin position could be even thinner this weekend as starting CB Aaron Ross is almost definitely out with that lingering hamstring problem, while CB Kevin Dockery, who would normally replace Ross, is questionable himself. Indeed, Terrell Thomas has already been designated the starter for Sunday, with undrafted rookie free agent Bruce Johnson listed as the probable 3rd corner.
The Giants may have felt somewhat more comfortable about going with just three safeties in the early part of the season because as both Ross and Thomas could slide over to safety in a pinch. Hard to imagine, though, that the Giants don’t spend some extra time next week looking at veteran free agent DBs especially if it indeed looks like Ross could be out for a while.
The final cuts also weren’t particularly kind to the Giants’ 2009 rookie class. Both QB Rhett Bomar and DB DeAndre Wright, the team’s 5th and 6th picks respectively this year, were released, while 4th round RB Andre Brown went on IR. With DB Stoney Woodson, the Giants’ 7th rounder, having been released earlier, it meant the Giants that only 5 of their 9 picks from this year’s draft are currently on the active roster. And while 2009 wasn’t a particularly good draft for anybody, the Giants were pretty close to the bottom of the league in terms of keeping their rookies on the roster. In fact, the three players released from the Giants’2009 draft class is actually more than the total number of players the Giants have released from their 2007 and 2008 draft classes combined TO DATE! Indeed, 12 of the 15 players from GM Jerry Reese’s first two draft classes are still on the roster, while a 13th - DT Jay Alford - is on IR.
Overall, 29 of the 53 players that made the Giants roster this week were draft picks or reasonable facsimiles thereof - the Giants technically actually traded for Eli Manning but we’ll count him as a draftee - while there are also 4 original undrafted free agents and 20 other players signed as free agents including two - RB Danny Ware and DE Dave Tollefson - who came off other team’s practice squads.
The bottom line… it’s a tough call. On paper the Giants are as talented top-to-bottom as any team in the league and if they can stay relatively healthy have a chance to be there at the end. However, we are hedging our bets for now, simply because so many key players are, or have been dinged. In the end, though, we think the Giants will win 11-12 games this year and play New Orleans for the NFC title late in January. Whatever should be a fascinating year. Enjoy!
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