2010 Draft Preview and other random thoughts
Here’s hoping what you see isn’t what you get. Indeed after starting the pre-season schedule off with a dominating performance against Carolina, the Giants have kind of stumbled and bumbled their way through their last couple of games. True, the Giants were much better on Saturday evening in a 27-25 loss against the Jets than they were the previous week in Chicago, but they still weren’t sharp. WR Steve Smith, for example, dropped what should have been an easy 90-yard TD pass and run reception that likely would have put the game out of reach very early on, RB Brandon Jacobs had the ball ripped out of his arms for a fumble, WR Domenik Hixon couldn’t hold on to a high pass that resulted in QB Eli Manning’s first interception of the pre-season (although to be fair to Hixon it did appear he was hit before the ball actually arrived, but no flag was thrown), while Manning should have had a second pass picked off as he broke just about every rule in the ’take care of the football manual’ when he threw late over the middle off his back foot into coverage.And so it went for much of the 60 minutes. Which is probably not how head coach Tom Coughlin and his staff had it worked out. Indeed, the third pre-season game is the one most teams, including the Giants, like to use as their final tune-up before the start of the regular season as they traditionally only play their starters more than a series or two in their fourth and final pre-season game. Given that’s the plan when the Giants wrap-up up the pre-season Thursday night in New England, the team will be kind of limping into the regular season.
Of course, it also didn’t helped that star DE Osi Umenyiora went AWOL from Monday afternoon’s practice session after he reportedly felt he had been unfairly singled out for criticism by defensive co-ordinator Bill Sheridan while reviewing the film of the Jets’ game earlier in the day. Fortunately, Umenyiora cooled down later in the day, apologized, and returned to practice, but its still more the kind of thing one expects to see in a place like Oakland and not in the camp of the presumptive NFC favorite less than two weeks before the start of the season.
If there is a silver lining to the apparent lack of cohesion in the Giants’ camp these days its that Super Bowls aren’t won in either September or October. Indeed, fast starts don’t guarantee much in the way of playoff success as the Giants found out last season after racing to an 11-1 start, before struggling the rest of the way. There was a similar story in the Giants’ Super Bowl 2007 season when New England looked unbeatable for much of the season, but finished 18-1. And while the Patriots will probably forever rue the loss to the Giants in the desert, but the truth is that the Patriots actually looked rather ordinary over the final few regular season games as well as the earlier playoff encounters.
Ultimately, there probably is much to be said for getting off to a measured start to the season, which in the NFL is still more of a marathon than sprint, and building toward a playoff run. At the same time, though, the NFC in general, and the NFC East in particular, looks like they will be very competitive this fall meaning that if anyone gets off to too slow a start, the ground may just too much to make up down the stretch.
There were a number of positives from Saturday’s game with the Jets, which will go down as a loss, but really should count as a tie as the Giants went for a 2-point conversion late in the game although they were only down a point, something they obviously would never have done if it was a regular season game. Most significantly, rookie WR Hakeem Nicks, the Giants’ #1 pick at the 2009 draft, had a breakout game as he caught 6 passes for 144 yards and 2 scores, including a 71-yarder. It should be noted, though, that much of that came against the Jets’ scrubs; indeed, it was probably more notable that Nicks got his first snaps in the pre-season with first team offense when he entered the game early in the second quarter and promptly hauled in a crisp 16-yard out. Meanwhile, fellow rookie WR Ramses Barden also got some minutes wit the first team, although he only had one catch for four yards.
Other notes of note from the Jets’ game: LB Zak DeOssie’s snaps on FGs and XPs were okay, somewhat easing fears as to who would handle that job if, as expected DT Jay Alford, is expected to miss any playing times; the snap on an attempted 51-yard FG by Lawrence Tynes though, was just off enough to affect the timing of the kick that fell a yard short… TE Kevin Boss finally caught a pass, a nifty 18-yarder; the Giants also tried to get deep with Boss on a couple of plays, but were never close as #89 was doubled on both play… OGs Chris Snee and Rich Seubert were both back in the starting line-up after missing the first two pre-season games with injuries… Veteran DT Rocky Bernard also made his first appearance in blue after coming over from Seattle and appeared to fit in upfront; just in time too with both Chris Canty and Jay Alford out, the DT rotation was starting to get rather thin.
What we learned on Saturday… It appears that WR Domenik Hixon will be the primary punt returner this fall, backed up by fellow WR Mario Manningham… speaking of Manningham, he looks a little like a gazelle when he‘s on the move; unfortunately, it still appears to be hit or miss whether he has any idea where he’s actually supposed to be going… it also appears that RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware will be the primary KO returners… it is also appears to be getting clearer that RB Brandon Jacobs will e adding ’3rd down back’ to his resume this fall as he was in on just about every 3rd down situation against the Jets.
Sweating out the week… With the 53-man roster looming this coming Saturday, a number of Giants can’t be feeling too good at about what transpired against the Jets. While rookie receivers Nicks and Barden got snaps with first-team offense, WR Sinorice Moss did not; indeed, it didn’t appear that Moss played at all in the regular offense. Add to the fact that he let a punt bounce at the Giants’ 22-yard line that the Jets’ ultimately downed inside the one, and Moss‘ Giants‘ career could be very much in jeopardy when the final cuts are announced this weekend. Meanwhile, time also appears to be running short on veteran WR David Tyree, who wasn’t able to play against the Jets because of a lingering hamstring problem that could cost him his role with the club… The fact that back-up David Carr took all the second half snaps at QB also can’t bode well for either Andre’ Woodson or 2009 5th rounder Rhett Bomar; the two rookies are each expected to get most of the snaps in Thursday‘s pre-season finale against the Patriots but by then it could just be too late… And RB Allen Patrick probably didn’t help make the case that the Giants should keep a 4th RB when he made a very poor read - that brought back memories of former first rounder Ron Dayne - on one of the Giants’ late two-point conversions when he caught back into the pile inside with a gaping lane open to him on the outside…
Random thots... Okay, so the pre-season is way too long, but with the start of the regular season still a week and a half away, there are a number of concerns niggling on the mind as we get closer to the opening kick-off. On the one hand, one really doesn’t get the sense that the Giants, especially on offense, have yet developed a real identity. Indeed, the Giants may have been the first essentially passing team to lead the league in rushing last fall. And while we have never been ‘smash-mouth’ guys - the whole concept sounds good on paper, but only works if a team has a dominating shut-down defense, like the Giants did in 1990, that can keep the score close while the running game is softening up the opponents - however, there were times last fall when one got the feeling that the opponent really could not stop the run, yet the Giants insisted on staying ‘balanced.’ Indeed, it may very well inherently impossible for a Tom Coughlin offense to run the ball more than three straight plays without feeling the need to put it in the air. And while we have no problem with going deep off a play action now and again after Jacobs has put together runs of 6, 6 and 6, nothing drives us crazier than to have Manning drop back and throw a 6-yard out on the second second and four.
In fact, if I were an opposing defensive co-ordinator, I’d actually be very hesitant to bring an extra man into the box to stop the Giants run game. Sure Brandon Jacobs will bust off a bunch of 6-yard runs, but until the Giants showed me they were prepared to run the ball down my team’s collective throats until we stopped it, I’d still be prepared to take my chances against the run and make Eli Manning beat me against full coverage.
Heading into the Jets’ game last weekend we were hoping to see at least a glimpse of what we were hoping would be a modified passing attack with greater distribution to the backs and TEs, as well as more quick hitters type routes to the Giants new, smaller, albeit quicker receiving corps. Instead, what we saw against the Jets was pretty much the old passing regime which was built largely with a singular go-to like Plaxico Burress in mind. Of course, the Giants may have just not been tipping their hands, however, in this day and age teams like to actually test some of what they are going to do in the pre-season against live competition. Time will tell.
And while Eli and company will get most of the headlines this fall, whether the Giants get back to the Super Bowl or not may depend to a greater degree on the pass rush. Again, we are only talking pre-season here, but the Giants pass-rush so far has been far from overwhelming. In particular, neither of DEs Osi Umenyiora nor Justin Tuck have had much of an impact in the three games to date. What’s worrisome is that neither really looks 100% as Tuck, who was really eaten up at the end of the 2008 season, battles a nagging foot injury, while Umenyiora is coming of the knee injury that forced him to miss the entire season last fall.
Again, it is still early, but the early returns suggest that the Giants’2009 draft class may be one of the weaker groups in recent years. The team’s top two picks this year - WR Hakeem Nicks and LB Clint Sintim - both look like they should be able to contribute this fall, however, that may be about it at least for this year. OT William Beatty, the Giants’ other second round pick this year, has really struggled through the early going so far, although o be fair he did play better against the Jets as he was a little more assertive than he had been against either Carolina or Chicago. A case can be made that TE Travis Beckum has been just as disappointing. Advertised as a potential mismatch problem working out of the slot, Beckum hasn’t looked very quick or explosive and has barely caused a ripple, although again to be fair, Beckum is another player coming off a serious injury suffered late in the 2008 college campaign and may need a little more time to get back to speed. Meanwhile, late round DBs DeAndre Wright and Stoney Woodson were badly overmatched every time they got on the field this summer, so much so that Woodson has already been released as part of the first round of cuts this week. And Wright, who gave up yet another big gainer against the Jets when he fell down and allowed an 80-yard TD reception in the game’s waning moments, may not be far behind, although he could conceivably make the 53-man roster if the Giants opt to keep 6 corners as there really isn’t anyone else in that role. At the same time, its hard to imagine the Giants will keep 5th rounder Bomar who hasn’t looked much more than practice squad material in the rare moments when he has played. Of course, it also didn’t help that promising RB Andre Brown was lost for the year after tearing his Achilles earlier in camp.
Speaking of the draft, the 2009 college season kicks off in earnest this weekend. And while its still 7 and a half months away, its never too early to start thinking about the 2010 draft. We also don’t want to overstate the Giants’ current lack of focus. This is still a very good team that everything else being equal has as good a chance as anyone in the NFL to get to the big dance in February. Indeed, its hard to pick one position that is a ’must-address’ area for the upcoming draft. Positions that the Giants could look at though in no particular order include:
Safety - Kenny Phillips looks to be a real keeper, but neither Michael Johnson or CC Brown is very good in coverage
Offensive line - The jury is still out on William Beatty, who is athletic but not very strong or physical, as the future at LT. And even if Beatty comes on at LT, RT Kareem McKenzie appears to be starting to break down so a second quality young OT could be on the bill, although incumbent LT David Diehl could ultimately end up on the other side where he‘d actually be a better fit. The Giants could also add some young beef at C and OG
Defensive tackle - The Giants have a lot of bodies at DT but haven‘t had a real stud that opposing teams have to account for since the days of Keith Hamilton. Plus, like RT McKenzie, Fred Robbins may be starting to show some wear and tear, while Barry Cofield could be a free agent at the end of the year.
Middle linebacker - Antonio Pierce has been slowing down for a couple of years now and is a real liability in coverage. Meanwhile, Chase Blackburn and Jonathan Goff offer decent depth, but neither is yet a proven front-liner.
Tight end - Incumbent starter Kevin Boss has all the physical tools but its time to take off the training wheels or it may be time to look for a true dual-threat at the position.
Then, of course, there are positions like CB and DE where a team ‘can never have enough’ talent!
The good news regarding the 2010 draft is that it appears there could be a decent match between the Giants needs and what is going to be available, although it is always important to keep in mind that which underclassmen ultimately enter the draft this year will have a huge impact on each position’s final grade. With that in mind here’s a quick overview of the potential strengths and weaknesses of the upcoming draft which overall looks to be a very good, although not quite great, draft class
No question that the real strength of the 2010 draft will be the defensive line. Indeed, the top individual position could be DT. Nebraska 300-pounder Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma junior Gerald McCoy, for example, both have top 5 potential, while there are a number of later first round prospects at the position including 365-pound Terrence ‘Mount’ Cody, Arthur Jones of Syracuse and UCLA junior Brian Price, both of whom are especially quick and athletic, and Vince Oghobaase of Duke. The good news at DT is that there are also several big, strong later first-day types that don’t get the same hype but will still be good value including Jared Odrick of Penn State, Boo Robinson of Wake Forest, DeMarcus Granger of Oklahoma, Boo Smith of Louisiana Tech, Dan Williams of Tennessee and Jay Ross of East Carolina.
Meanwhile, there are a ton of college DEs who can get after the passer including tweener types like George Selvie of South Florida, Greg Hardy of Ole Miss, Michgan’s Brandon Graham, Jerry Hughes of TCU, and Brandon Lang of Troy, along with emerging Pitt junior Greg Romeus. The top DE this year, though could ultimately be freakish 6-5, 290-pound Florida junior Carlos Dunlap who could get some serious consideration as the #1 player selected this year.
Its also not a bad year to be in the market for an offensive tackle as Russell Okung of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma‘s Trent Williams, Ciron Black of LSU, as well as juniors Brian Bulaga and Anthony Davis of Rutgers have first-round potential. Interesting though that there are questions about the overall athleticism of seniors Okung, Williams, and Black who may be downgraded as more RT prospects. Meanwhile, there is some good depth at the position. One player to keep an eye on in the later second or third round area is 315-pound Zane Beadles of Utah. Unfortunately, there isn’t anywhere nearly as much talent this year at either C or OG, although Alabama OG Mike Johnson and Clemson C/G Thomas Austin at least have top 60 potential.
The 2010 draft will also be relatively strong at both safety and MLB, positions that have tended to get short shrift at the draft in recent years. At safety, for example, both Taylor Mays of USC and Tennessee junior Eric Berry are considered top 5-10 talents. Both unfortunately will likely be long gone by the time the Giants pick this coming April, however, other safeties to watch include juniors Reshad Jones of Georgia and Georgia Tech‘s Morgan Burnett, along with Darrell Stuckey of Kansas and Nate Allen of South Florida. Jones, in particular, looks like he might be very good value late in the opening round if he opts to leave school this winter.
Meanwhile, at MLB, Brandon Spikes of Florida has the kind of athleticism that kept Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis out of the first round of the 2009 draft, while both Alabama junior Rolando McClain and Micah Johnson of Kentucky have excellent size for a mike backer as well as decent speed and agility. And there are a number of other solid tackling machine MLB types who maybe lack exceptional measurables, but have great instincts and motors including Joe Pawelek of Baylor, underrated Boris Lee of Troy and the appropriately named Pat Angerer of Iowa.
On the other hand, it could be something of a down year at CB, although the entry of juniors like Joe Haden of Florida and Virginia’s Ras-I Dowling would upgrade things would provide at least a couple of potential mid-first round candidates at the position. Meanwhile, one player to watch later in the opening round is Trevard Lindley of Kentucky who lacks top-end recovery speed, but is very physical, instinctive and aggressive and appears to fit the mold of what the Giants look in a cover corner.
The top storyline in college football this fall, though, will be the expected year-long dual among star QBs Tim Tebow of Florida, Colt McCoy of Texas and Oklahoma junior Sam Bradford for player of the year honors. Bradford, in fact, probably should be plying his trade with Detroit this fall, while McCoy looks to be a solid mid-first round prospect this coming April. Tebow, though will represent something of a challenge for pro scouts. No question Tebow will go down as one of the greatest college players of all time, but still has yet to convince NFL personnel people that he has the accuracy and mechanics to play the position at the next level. Indeed, Ole Miss junior Jevan Snead probably carries a higher grade than Tebow as a prospect for the 2010 draft.
There is a big drop-off at QB after the top 3 or 4 players this year. As well, it likely will only be an average year at the other skill positions on offense. RB and WR, in particular, will also be very dependent on juniors at the top of the board. Georgia Tech junior Jonathan Dwyer, for example, is the top RB prospect this year, but likely won’t be rated much higher than the middle of the opening round. And while there are some other good backs none yet rates as sure pro star yet. Meanwhile, Illinois junior Arrelious Benn is the top-rated receiver, with a top 5-10 combination of size and speed, but its unlikely that the 2010 draft will offer anything close to the half dozen or so receivers that went in the opening round this past April.
The one offensive skill position that could be rated as above average n 2010 could be the TEs. Oklahoma’s Jermaine Gresham, for example, should be one of the better prospects at the position in a while, while juniors Rob Gronokowski of Arizona and Aaron Hernandez of Florida may not be all that far behind. And there should be good depth at the position this year including veterans Dennis Pita of BYU, Ed Dickson of Oregon, Garrett Graham of Wisconsin, and Anthony McCoy of USC.
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